said 8 Apr 2024
If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.
Late by
9m 6d
and 15h 46m 54s
— Elon Musk, contemporaneous report
X Spaces interview with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, one of Tesla's largest shareholders. In the same call he said AI would be "smarter than any one human" by the end of 2025 and would exceed all humans combined within five years. Nine months earlier he had put full AGI at 2029.
What happened: As of late September 2026, no AI lab, including his own, has claimed AGI. Musk's own estimate collapsed: in October 2025 he put the odds of Grok 5 reaching AGI at "10% and rising," down from "probably next year." Grok 5 missed its Q1 and Q2 2026 windows and still has no release date; xAI shipped Grok 4.7 on 21 September instead. On 14 September Musk said Grok 5 would be xAI's first AGI model, without giving a date. His outer bound of "within two years" runs to the end of 2026.
due 31 Dec 2025
Receipt · archived original Reuters report of Musk X Spaces interview, Apr 8 2024 (opens in a new tab)