said 8 Apr 2024
If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.
— Elon Musk, contemporaneous report
X Spaces interview with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, one of Tesla's largest shareholders. In the same call he said AI would be "smarter than any one human" by the end of 2025 and would exceed all humans combined within five years. Nine months earlier he had put full AGI at 2029.
What happened: No AI lab, including his own, has claimed AGI. Musk's own estimate collapsed: in October 2025 he put the odds of Grok 5 reaching AGI at "10% and rising," down from "probably next year." Grok 5 itself missed its Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 windows, and xAI has continued shipping incremental Grok 4.x releases while Grok 5 remains in training on the Colossus 2 cluster as of August 2026. His outer bound of "within two years" runs to the end of 2026.
due 31 Dec 2025
Reuters report of Musk X Spaces interview, Apr 8 2024 · archived